本研究以「人口遷移學推拉理論」為基礎，探索我國與留學地主國間留學互動關係的推拉因果模式，及其間的一致性和關聯性，並對我國未來留學生人數進行預測。研究的主要目的為：(1)瞭解我國與留學地主國留學教育概況，並探討海外留學對留學地主國與送出留學生國家國家的正反面效果；(2)說明人口遷移學中的推拉理論及評閱有關留學生流動的研究文獻與報告；(3)探索我國與留學地主國間留學互動的推拉因果模式；(4)探索我國與留學地主國間在留學互動的推拉因果模式間之一致性與關聯性 ；(5)對我國未來出國的留學生人數進行預測；最後(6)根據研究結果提出建議，作為制訂留學教育政策及未來研究的參考。

　　在探索留學互動的推拉因果模式與其模式間的一致性和關聯性時，是以我國與美國、德國、日本及法國等四個留學地主國為對象，採1954年到1988年共35年縱貫動態分析為主。在我國未來留學生人數預測上，則以1950年到1988年的動態資料為主。研究資料來源是「中華民國教育部統計」、「中華民國台灣地區統計提要」、「中華民國統計年鑑」、UNESCO統計、國際貨幣基金統計年報、美國國際教育組織的Open doors統計，做為分析的根據。

　　本研究之資料處理係利用國立政治大學PRIME 6150大電腦的SPSSX、SAS/ETS及PC版的LISREL 7統計套裝軟體，另外引用余民寧(民81)所設計「二次式分配準則SAS/IML之程式」，作為統計分析的工具。本研究共提出十個虛無假設，並擬以下列方法檢定研究假設。

　　一、以共變結構分析(LISREL)檢定我國與留學地主國間留學互動的推拉因果模式，即假設一～四。

　　二、以二次式分配準則 (QAP)檢定我國與留學地主國在留學互動的推拉因果模式之一致性與關聯性，即假設五～十。

　　三、以單變量時間數列ARIMA方法與迴歸分析方法，進行我國未來留學生人數之預測。

　　本研究之主要結果為：

　　一、我國與美國間留學互動的推拉因果關係證實存在。

　　二、我國與德國間留學互動的推拉因果關係證實存在。

　　三、我國與日本間留學互動的推拉因果關係證實存在。

　　四、我國與法國間留學互動的推拉因果關係在修正模式後證實存在。

　　五、我國與美國、我國與德國在留學互動的推拉因果模式之適配共變數矩陣具有.429的顯著相關性與一致性。

　　六、我國與美國、我國與法國在留學互動的推拉因果模式之適配共變數矩陣具有.469的顯著相關性與一致性。

　　七、我國與美國、我國與日本在留學互動的推拉因果模式之適配共變數矩陣的相關性與一致性僅-.098而已。

　　八、我國與德國、我國與法國在留學互動的推拉因果模式之適配共變數矩陣具有.763的顯著相關性與一致性。

　　九、我國與德國、我國與日本在留學互動的推拉因果模式之適配共變數矩陣具有.510的顯著相關性與一致性。

　　十、我國與法國、我國與日本在留學互動的推拉因果模式之適配共變數矩陣具有.377的顯著相關性與一致性。

　　另外，在我國未來出國留學人數預測上，民國87年以前預期每年將至少有6600名以上的留學生出國，並且當國民所得達12000美元時，出國留學的人數預期將可能突破10000人以上。

　　本研究根據研究結果提出建議，作為政府制訂留學教育政策及未來研究的參考。

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　　This research is based on "the push-pull theory of population mobility. It explores between Taiwan and the leading host coun-tries the causal model, consistency and correlation of the push-pull interaction in studying abroad. It also forecasts the number of studying-abroad students of Taiwan in the future. Therefore, the purposes of this research are: (1) to understand the foreign education of both Taiwan and the leading host coun-tries and further to probe the pros and cons of foreign educa-tion; (2) to explain the push-pull theory of population mobility and to comment the literatures of studying abroad; (3) to explore between Taiwan and the leading host countries the causal rela-tionship of push-pull interaction in studying abroad; (4) to explore between Taiwan and the leading host countries the consistency and correlation of push-pull causal model in studying abroad; (5) to forecast the number of studying abroad students of Taiwan; and (6) to propose suggestions for the policy-making of studying abroad and future studies according to the results of this research.

　　In exploring the causal relationship model, consistency, and correlation of the push-pull interaction in studying abroad, the subjects will be Taiwan, U.S.A., Germany, Japan, and France. The data are collected from The R.O.C. St-atis-bics of the Educa-tion Ministry, The R.O.C. Statistics Summary of Taiwan Areas, The R.O.C. Statistics Yearbook, UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, Interna-tional Financial Statistics Yearbook, and Open Doors (1991-1993) of the Institute of International Education. While in forecast-ing the number of studying-abroad students of Taiwan the data will be ranged from 1950 to 1988. All data of this research are dynamic.

　　The handling of data will adopt SPSSX, SAS/ETS, and LISREL7 packages program and will cite Yu Min-ning"s SAS/IML program of QAP (1992). All packages program are in the Computer Center (PRIME 6150) of National Cheng-chi University, exclusive of LIS-REL7 which is set in personal computer. This research will propose ten null hypotheses, and the statistical methods used to confirm the null hypotheses are as follows:

　　(1) Use Linear Struc-tural Equation (LISREL) to test the causal relationship of the push-pull interaction in studying abroad between Taiwan and the leading host countries. (Hypotheses 1-4)

　　(2) Use Quadratic Assignment Paradigm (QAP) to test the con-sistency, correlation of the push-pull interaction in studying abroad between Taiwan and leading host countries. (Hypotheses 5-10)

　　(3) Use both Autoregerssion Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) of univarate time series and regression analysis to forecast the number of the studying-abroad students of Taiwan in the future.

　　The main results of this research are as follows:

　　(1) There exists a push-pull causal' relationship in studying abroad between Taiwan and U. S. A. .

　　(2) There exists a push-pull causal relationship in studying abroad between Taiwan and Germany.

　　(3) There exists a push-pull causal relationship in studying abroad between Taiwan and Japan.

　　(4) There exists a push-pull causal relationship in studying abroad between Taiwan and France after modifying the model.

　　(5) Taiwan-U.S.A. and Taiwan-Germany best-fitted covariance matrices are significantly similar. The correlation coefficient is .429.

　　(6) Taiwan-U.S.A. and Taiwan-France best-fitted covariance matrices are significantly similar. The correlation coefficient

　　(7) Taiwan-U.S.A and Taiwan-Japan best-fitted covariance matrices are not significantly similar. The correlation coeffi-cient is only -.098.

　　(8) Taiwan-Germany and Taiwan-France best-fitted covariance matrices are significantly similar. The correlation coefficient is .763.

　　(9) Taiwan-Germany and Taiwan-Japan best-fitted covariance ma-trices are significantly similar. The correlation coefficient is .510.

　　(10) Taiwan-France and Taiwan-Japan best-fitted covariance ma-trices are significantly similar. The correlation coefficient is .3768.

　　Therefore, nine null hypotheses are rejected and only one null hypothesis is accepted.

　　Besides, in forecasting the number of the studying-abroad students of Taiwan, it will be expected to send out over 6600 students to study abroad every year before 1998. Furthermore, when the per capita income of Taiwan reaches US$12000, the number of studying-abroad students will be over 10000 per year.

　　Finally, according to conclusions and results of this re-search, some suggestions for the policy-making of studying abroad and future studies in this field are proposed.