本研究以台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司（台積電）之桃園龍潭科學園區廠、台中中部科學園區廠、高雄楠梓科學園區廠三廠區為研究對象，探討台積電廠區布局之不同類型訊息釋出對於周邊住宅市場價格之影響，將研究分為四個部分，分別為宣告設廠後又取消設廠的桃園龍潭科學園區廠、宣告設廠並已經設廠即將擴廠之台中中部科學園區廠、宣告設廠並正在建廠之高雄楠梓科學園區廠（其中高雄楠梓案另擴大至涵蓋仁武、橋頭之高雄台積電生活圈），分別對其進行研究。研究資料涵蓋2019年11月至2025年12月之實價登錄交易紀錄，運用斷點迴歸設計（RDD）逐一檢視宣告效果與民眾非理性預期心理。
實證結果顯示，成屋價格對訊息呈現利多敏感、利空鈍化之不對稱反應，且此一敏感度取決於訊息確定性的程度：高確定性宣告，如台中中科二廠設置確定，於局部窄頻寬內即產生顯著跳升，房價上漲約10.35%；確定性較低之初期行政動作，如都市計畫變更，局部效果不顯著，惟於涵蓋較長期間之全域模型下顯著為正，此一「局部不顯著、全域顯著」型態在台中、高雄楠梓與生活圈三個子樣本間一致出現，本研究以訊號效應（Signaling Effects, Hopkins & Knaap, 2018）予以解讀。桃園龍潭撤廠案例則顯示，儘管訊息落空引發非理性預期，局部房價並未顯著下降，此現象較宜歸因於成屋市場之價格向下僵固性，與損失規避及自備款限制理論（Stein, 1995）相符。整體而言，資本化效果呈現預期期漸進、確定期高峰、實現期轉弱之動態型態。
本研究推論，非理性預期心理是驅動房價短期偏離基本面之重要因素，其資本化程度深受訊息確定性與發布時機影響。研究建議政府應強化重大建設訊息之揭露與跨部會政策協同機制，並留意預售屋管制之市場外溢效應，以引導市場回歸居住實質基本面。

This study examines TSMC's Longtan (Taoyuan), Central Taiwan Science Park (Taichung), and Nanzih (Kaohsiung) sites—covering an announced-then-canceled plant, an established plant undergoing expansion, and a plant under construction, respectively—with the Kaohsiung sample further extended to a broader living-circle covering Renwu and Qiaotou. This study uses actual price registration data from November 2019 to December 2025 and applies a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to examine announcement effects and expectation psychology across these four sub-samples.
Results show an asymmetric price response—sensitive to positive news, muted to negative news—conditioned by announcement certainty. Highly certain announcements (e.g., the confirmed Taichung fab expansion) trigger a significant local price jump of about 10.35%, while less certain preliminary actions (e.g., zoning changes) show no significant local effect but a significant positive effect globally over a longer window. This "locally insignificant, globally significant" pattern recurs across the Taichung, Kaohsiung Nanzih, and living-circle sub-samples, which this study interprets through Signaling Effects (Hopkins & Knaap, 2018). In the Taoyuan cancellation case, local prices show no significant decline despite the negative announcement. This pattern is attributable to downward price rigidity, consistent with loss aversion and down-payment constraints (Stein, 1995). Capitalization thus builds gradually during expectation formation, peaks at confirmation, and weakens once construction begins.
These findings suggest that expectation psychology is a key driver of short-term price deviations from fundamentals, with the degree of capitalization shaped by information certainty and timing. The study recommends that the government strengthen the disclosure of major construction announcements and inter-ministerial policy coordination, while monitoring spillover effects of pre-sale market regulation, so as to guide the market back toward its fundamental residential function.

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