本研究建立一個考慮能源使用與氣候變遷機制的兩國動態隨機一般均衡（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE）模型，分析碳稅與關稅政策對總體經濟之影響，並探討氣候變遷透過經濟生產力損害形成之傳導機制。模擬結果顯示，本國政府提高碳稅或關稅皆對經濟造成負向供給面衝擊效果，短期內推升物價並抑制產出，呈現典型的停滯性通膨現象。儘管碳稅名義上屬於環境政策工具，其於衝擊下所呈現之總體經濟效果，與傳統關稅政策具有高度相似性。此外，當全球氣候異常加劇、極端氣候事件頻繁發生，全球經濟體系將同時面臨生產力受損與物價波動加劇等挑戰，各國央行被迫在抑制通膨與穩定景氣間進行複雜的政策權衡，氣候變遷已成為央行維持總體經濟穩定性的重要挑戰。

This study develops a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates energy utilization and climate change mechanisms to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes and tariffs. It further explores the transmission channels through which climate change affects economic productivity. Simulation results indicate that an increase in carbon taxes or tariffs by the domestic government triggers a negative supply-side shock, leading to higher prices and suppressed output in the short run—a classic manifestation of stagflation. Despite being an environmental policy tool, the carbon tax exhibits macroeconomic effects highly similar to those of traditional tariffs under such shocks. Furthermore, the findings suggest that as global climate anomalies intensify and extreme weather events become more frequent, the global economic system faces concurrent challenges of productivity loss and heightened price volatility. Central banks are consequently forced into complex policy trade-offs between curbing inflation and stabilizing economic growth. Ultimately, climate change has emerged as a critical challenge for central banks in maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Abdelhamid, M., Hicham, O., Hicham, E. O., & Houda, L. (2025). Carbon Taxes and Inflationary Pressures: A DSGE Exploration of Economic Responses and Macroeconomic Challenges. Computational Economics, 1-24.
Annicchiarico, B., & Di Dio, F. (2015). Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 69, 1-21.
Annicchiarico, B., & Di Dio, F. (2017). GHG emissions control and monetary policy. Environmental and Resource Economics, 67, 823-851.
Annicchiarico, B., & Diluiso, F. (2019). International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy. Resource and Energy Economics, 58, 101112.
Auray, S., Devereux, M. B., & Eyquem, A. (2025). Trade wars, nominal rigidities, and monetary policy. Review of Economic Studies, 92(4), 2228-2270.
Barattieri, A., Cacciatore, M., & Ghironi, F. (2021). Protectionism and the business cycle. Journal of International Economics, 129, 103417.
Bergin, P. R., & Corsetti, G. (2023). The macroeconomic stabilization of tariff shocks: What is the optimal monetary response? Journal of International Economics, 143, 103758.
Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A., & Raffo, A. (2020). The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 109, 38-59.
Carattini, S., Kim, G., Melkadze, G., & Pommeret, A. (2024). Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers. European Economic Review, 170, 104883.
Chang, J. J., Chen, J. Ｈ., Shieh, J. Y., & Lai, C. C. (2009). Optimal tax policy, market imperfections, and environmental externalities in a dynamic optimizing macro model. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 11(4), 623-651.
Del Negro, M., Di Giovanni, J., & Dogra, K. (2023). Is the green transition inflationary?. FRB of New York Staff Report, (1053).
Deschênes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2007). The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. American economic review, 97(1), 354-385.
Deschênes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2011). Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(4), 152-185.
Dietrich, A. M., Leitenbacher, L., & Müller, G. J. (2025). Consumer durables, monetary policy, and the green transition. European Economic Review, 105207.
Diluiso, F., Annicchiarico, B., Kalkuhl, M., & Minx, J. C. (2021). Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 110, 102548.
Dissou, Y., & Karnizova, L. (2016). Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 79, 169-188.
Economides, G., & Xepapadeas, A. (2025). Monetary policy stabilization in a new Keynesian model under climate change. Review of Economic Dynamics, 56, 101260.
Erceg, C. J., Prestipino, A., & Raffo, A. (2018). The macroeconomic effects of trade policy. International Finance Discussion Paper(1242).
Ernst, A., Hinterlang, N., Mahle, A., & Stähler, N. (2023). Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: Options for international cooperation. Journal of International Economics, 144, 103772.
Ferrari, A., & Nispi Landi, V. (2024). Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter. IMF Economic Review, 1-64.
Figueres, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., Whiteman, G., Rockström, J., Hobley, A., & Rahmstorf, S. (2017). Three years to safeguard our climate. Nature, 546(7660), 593-595.
Fischer, C., & Springborn, M. (2011). Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 62(3), 352-366.
Graff Zivin, J., & Neidell, M. (2014). Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change. Journal of Labor Economics, 32(1), 1-26.
Heutel, G. (2012). How should environmental policy respond to business cycles? Optimal policy under persistent productivity shocks. Review of Economic Dynamics, 15(2), 244-264.
Justiniano, A., Primiceri, G. E., & Tambalotti, A. (2014). The effects of the saving and banking glut on the US economy. Journal of International Economics, 92, S52-S67.
Lindé, J., & Pescatori, A. (2019). The macroeconomic effects of trade tariffs: Revisiting the lerner symmetry result. Journal of International Money and Finance, 95, 52-69.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., ... & Zhu, B. (2023). Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 3-32.
Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W. D., & Shaw, D. (1994). The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. The American economic review, 753-771.
Sims, E., & Wolff, J. (2017). State-dependent fiscal multipliers: Calvo vs. Rotemberg. Economics Letters, 159, 190-194.
Yang, S., Shi, B., & Yang, F. (2023). Macroeconomic impact of the Sino–US trade frictions: Based on a two-country, two-sector DSGE model. Research in International Business and Finance, 65, 101956.