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研究生: 張恩睿
Chang, En-Jui
論文名稱: 論雙北公共運輸定期票政策之效果與影響
The Effect and Influence of the Unlimited Monthly Transit Pass Policy in Taipei Metropolitan Area
指導教授: 陳鎮洲
Chen, Jenn-Jou
口試委員: 郭振雄
Kuo, Jenn-Shyong
羅光達
Lo, Kuang-Ta
陳鎮洲
Chen, Jenn-Jou
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 36
中文關鍵詞: 公共運輸定期票外部性
外文關鍵詞: Public Transport, Unlimited Transit Pass, Externalities
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202100538
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  • 台北都會區於2018年4月16日起實施了公共運輸定期票政策。本研究使用迴歸不連續法,估計此政策對於對於台北捷運系統運輸量在短期的處理果。此外,我們也討論了這個政策是否能降低私人運輸工具所帶來的外部性。實證結果顯示此政策增加了捷運站的每日平均進出站人數,民眾受到了此政策的鼓勵,更加願意搭乘捷運。然而,並沒有任何統計上的證據表明此政策能在短期減輕交通阻塞與空氣污染。


    A policy of unlimited monthly transit pass was implemented in the Taipei metropolitan area on April 16, 2018. This research uses regression discontinuity design to estimate the short-run treatment effect of the policy on the ridership of the mass rapid transit (MRT) system. In addition, I discuss whether the policy can reduce the externality caused by private vehicles. The results show that the policy increases the average of entries and exits in MRT stations. People are encouraged to take the MRT through the policy. However, there is no evidence that the policy can mitigate traffic congestion and air pollution in the short run.

    1. Introduction 1
    2. Literature Review 5
    3. Theoretical Model 7
    4. Empirical Design 10
    4.1 Regression Discontinuity Model 11
    4.2 Data 13
    5. Estimation Results 15
    5.1 RD estimation results 15
    5.2 Subgroup Analysis 17
    5.3 Sorting behavior and donut RD estimation 19
    6. Falsification Test 23
    6.1 Balance test 23
    6.2 Placebo cutoffs 24
    7. Discussion about Externality 27
    7.1 Traffic congestion 27
    7.2 Air pollution 29
    8. Conclusion 32
    References 34

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