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| 研究生： |
王彥智 Wang, Yan Chih |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
以B-Spline方法預測NBA冠軍 Predicting NBA Championship By Using B-Spline |
| 指導教授： |
黃子銘
Huang, Tzee Ming |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 統計學系 Department of Statistics |
| 論文出版年： | 2013 |
| 畢業學年度： | 101 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 33 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | B-樣條 、平滑資料 、節點 、美國男子職業籃球 、總冠軍預測 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：335 下載：132 |
| 分享至: |
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本文研究目的在於預測12-13年NBA總冠軍,蒐集12-13球季NBA常規賽數據,將每場球賽的數據整理分類,主要研究方法是使用B-Spline為基底建模,配適出每個球隊的實力曲線,再根據三種不同概念的指標,DIFF(Difference):比賽得失分差。GmSr(Game Score):自身球隊的效率分數,表示球隊攻擊能力。AntiGmSr(Anti-Game Score):比賽對手的效率分數,表示壓制對手的能力。最後,使用排名積分法和最適加權法來融合這三種不同指標分數,預測當年度總冠軍。此外,本文也將02-12年總共十個球季的總冠軍賽果加入預測判斷條件,使之更能加強對總冠軍預測的準確性。排名積分法預測2013年總冠軍為熱火隊、最適加權法預測為灰熊隊。
We apply a B-Spline approach to predict the playoff results of National Basketball Association (NBA). Here the features are composed of the regular seasons. Moreover, we use DIFF(diffentials),GmSr(gamescore) and AntiGmSr(the rival's gamescore) to rank to predict the final result. With 10-year records, the predict result is that for the best chance of 2013 NBA Championship is Heat.
1 緒論........................4
1.1 研究動機與目的..............4
1.2 本文架構...................4
2 文獻探討.....................5
2.1 NBA數據分析起源和發展........5
2.2 預測NBA冠軍的相關文獻........6
3 研究方法.....................7
3.1 建構曲線模型假設............7
3.2 knots個數選擇..............8
3.3 指標分數計算................9
3.4 總冠軍預測方法..............10
4 2002-2013年~NBA球隊數據分析...11
4.1 02-12年之總冠軍分析.........12
4.2 12-13年度總冠軍預測分析......15
5 總結與討論....................17
附錄...........................18
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