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This study examines the impact of United States and European Union tariff and monetary policies on Taiwan’s economy, with a particular focus on exchange rate dynamics and stock market performance. As a highly export-oriented economy deeply integrated into global supply chains—especially in the semiconductor industry—Taiwan is highly sensitive to external policy shocks from major economies. Using a mixed-method approach combining descriptive statistics, time-series analysis, and event-study analysis, this research analyzes data from 2015 to 2025 to evaluate how trade and monetary policy changes in the U.S. and EU affect Taiwan’s New Taiwan Dollar (NTD), foreign capital flows, and equity market movements.

The empirical results indicate that U.S. policies exert a significantly stronger influence on Taiwan’s economy than EU policies. Changes in U.S. monetary policy, particularly unconventional measures and rapid interest rate adjustments, show a strong correlation with NTD appreciation or depreciation and capital inflows or outflows. Tariff shocks—such as those during the U.S.–China trade war and the 2025 U.S. tariff announcement—trigger substantial short-term volatility in Taiwan’s stock market, especially when policies are unexpected. In contrast, EU policies, including the EU Chips Act, have limited short-term market impact but carry long-term strategic significance through industrial cooperation and supply chain diversification.

The study further finds that Taiwan’s stock market reacts more strongly to sudden external shocks than to well-anticipated policy changes, reflecting high sensitivity to global uncertainty rather than gradual policy adjustments. Based on these findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations for export-oriented firms, investors, and government authorities, emphasizing export market diversification, enhanced risk management, and strategic leverage of Taiwan’s technological strengths. These measures aim to strengthen Taiwan’s economic resilience in an increasingly volatile global environment.

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