| 研究生: |
施秀儀 Shih, Hsiu-Yi |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
科學園區訊息釋出對高雄房市之影響:斷點迴歸設計之應用 The Impact of Science Park Information Releases on the Kaohsiung’s Housing Market: An Application of Regression Discontinuity Design |
| 指導教授: |
陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi |
| 口試委員: |
陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi 姜樹翰 Chiang, Shu-Han 李明軒 Lee, Ming-Hsuan |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 財務管理學系 Department of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 99 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 房市 、斷點迴歸設計 、科學園區 、訊息釋出 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Housing Market, Regression Discontinuity Design, Science Parks, Information Releases |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:4 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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本研究探討與科學園區相關之 訊息釋出 對臺灣高雄地區房價的影響。研究採用斷點迴歸設計 (Regression Discontinuity Design, RDD),分析個別企 業與科學園區相關的 訊息釋出 (如投資確認、動土典禮與設備安裝 )對鄰近地區房市的影響。依訊息釋出 日期作為時間斷點,並以 樣本點 與科學園區的空間距離,作為檢視地理異質性的依據。
研究結果顯示,房市對不同訊息釋出 的反應具有明顯異質性,依事件的性質、確定性與時機而有所不同。早期的投資資訊較可能在鄰近地區引發顯著正向的價格反應,而後期的擴建或技術升級公告,則 可能 伴隨資訊效力遞減、預期已反映,甚至出現價格下跌的情形。此外,空間異質性亦相當明顯,部分施工階段事件在不同距離帶的房價反應呈現低幅甚至非線性效果。 本研究顯示,房價對產業投資公告展現出明顯的預期性反應,即使尚未動工,價格亦可能提前變動,突顯公告內容與地理條件在房價形成過程中的關鍵角色。 研究亦說明,不同階段與位置的設廠活動如何影響區域房市,對於未來的地方發展與土地使用政策提供重要參考 。
This study investigates the impact of information releases related to science parks on housing prices in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Utilizing a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), the research analyzes how individual corporate announcements related to science park—such as investment confirmations, groundbreaking ceremonies, and equipment installation events—affect the local housing market. The timing of each announcement serves as the temporal cutoff, while the spatial distance between sample points and the science park is used to examine geographic heterogeneity.
The findings reveal that the housing market reacts heterogeneously depending on the nature, certainty, and timing of each announcement. Early-stage investment disclosures tend to trigger strong positive price responses in nearby areas, while later-stage events—such as capacity expansions or technology upgrades—often produce weaker or even negative effects. These results may reflect diminishing informational value, market saturation, or anticipatory pricing behavior. Spatial heterogeneity is also evident, with some construction-phase events generating muted or non-linear effects across distance zones. Overall, the study demonstrates that housing prices exhibit anticipatory behavior in response to industrial investment announcements, highlighting the importance of both announcement characteristics and geographic context in shaping price dynamics. It further shows how the timing and spatial placement of industrial expansion influence regional housing markets, offering useful insights for future local development and land use planning.
Chapter I Introduction 1
Section 1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
Section 1.2 Research Purposes and Questions 3
Section 1.3 Research Framework and Process 4
Chapter II Literature Review 5
Section 2.1 Announcement Events in Asset Markets 5
Section 2.2 Announcement Events in Real Estate Market 8
Section 2.3 The Impact of High-tech Industry in Real Estate Market 11
Section 2.4 Applications of Regression Discontinuity Design 13
Section 2.5 Summary 16
Chapter III Methodology and Model Design 18
Section 3.1 Contextual Background 18
Section 3.2 Hypothesis 19
Section 3.3 Methodology of Regression Discontinuity Design 23
Section 3.4 Empirical Model 26
Section 3.5 Study Period, Variables, and Event 27
Chapter IV Empirical Results 37
Section 4.1 Descriptive Statistics 37
Section 4.2 Temporal Heterogeneity of Price Effects around Science Parks 41
Section 4.3 Robustness Tests-Temporal 61
Section 4.4 Spatial Heterogeneity of Price Effects around Science Parks 72
Section 4.5 Robust Tests-Spatial 83
Chapter V Conclusion 87
Section 5.1 Conclusion 87
Section 5.2 Limitation and Suggestion 90
Section 5.3 Implications 93
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全文公開日期 2028/08/21