中美貿易戰自2018年爆發以來，對全球供應鏈造成劇烈衝擊，尤其美國對中國加徵懲罰性關稅後，促使跨國企業重新調整出口來源與生產布局。臺灣作為中國、美國及東協的重要貿易夥伴，其是否成為中美衝突下的出口替代國，成為關注焦點。本研究以2014至2019年間臺灣與中國、美國、東協間的產品層級貿易資料為基礎，選取HS84（機械）、HS85（電機設備）與HS87（車輛）三大產業，搭配資本財、中間財與消費財等財貨分類，採用 System GMM 估計的模型進行實證分析。研究結果顯示，中美貿易戰期間臺灣在電子與中間財領域確實出現部分出口轉單現象，特別是對美國的中間財與HS85產品出口顯著增加。然而，臺灣自中國進口中間財的依賴並未減弱，反映出供應鏈僅為重新分配而非實質脫鉤。車輛產業則在多個市場皆出現出口與進口的同步下滑，顯示資本密集型產業難以短期內調整供應鏈結構。此外，臺灣自東協中間財進口明顯增加，反映出供應鏈可能轉向區域重組；惟對東協出口未見同步擴張，十國之間調整方向差異大，導致整體呈現抵消效果。整體而言，臺灣在部分產業具備替代潛力，但仍受限於對中國供應鏈的依賴、產業別替代難易度不一、東協市場吸納能力有限以及政策調整的時間落差等因素，尚未成為全面承接轉單的第三國受益者。

Since the China–U.S. trade war began in 2018, global supply chains have experienced significant disruptions. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports prompted multinational firms to reallocate their sourcing and production strategies. This study investigates whether Taiwan served as a trade substitute during this period, using product-level trade data from 2014 to 2019 covering Taiwan’s trade with the U.S., China, and ASEAN. It focuses on three industries—HS84 (machinery), HS85 (electrical equipment), and HS87 (vehicles)—and classifies goods into capital, intermediate, and consumer types. A System GMM dynamic panel model is employed to estimate the effects. The results show partial evidence of trade diversion, with Taiwan's exports of HS85 and intermediate goods to the U.S. significantly increasing. However, imports of Chinese intermediate goods remained stable, indicating a redistribution rather than full decoupling of supply chains. The vehicle sector showed declines in both exports and imports, reflecting limited substitutability in capital-intensive industries. Moreover, while Taiwan’s imports of intermediate goods from ASEAN increased, its exports to ASEAN showed no corresponding growth. Substantial heterogeneity among ASEAN countries led to offsetting effects in aggregate. Overall, Taiwan exhibited selective trade substitution capacity during the trade war. Nevertheless, structural dependence on Chinese inputs, uneven substitutability across industries, the limited absorptive capacity of ASEAN markets, and policy adjustment delays constrained its ability to fully replace China as a third-country exporter.

林家慶、楊維娟（2025）。臺灣在中美貿易摩擦有得到好處嗎？雙反案例之實證研究。經濟論文叢刊，53(1)，1-33。
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