本研究利用行政院主計總處之人力運用調查資料，分析1995年與2011年臺灣兩次公務人員退休金制度改革對勞動市場的影響，包括薪資、工作時數與勞動參與之變化，並納入地方選舉的政治因素與勞動參與關聯性的探討。實證模型以差異中的差異 (difference-in-differences, DID) 方法探討不同期間的退休金與薪資之關係。結果發現，公務人員退休制度改革減少退休金，對於公部門員工的薪資有提高的情形，符合薪資與退休金之替代關係，雖然效果僅限於2011年退休制度改革之次年。另以差異中的差異方法探討不同期間的工作時數變化之實證結果發現，公務人員退休制度改革減少退休金，對於工時的即時效果視退休制度改革的幅度而定、制度改革之三年後，公部門員工的工作時數增加。以工具變數Probit模型探討勞動參與率之變化，結果發現當公務人員退休制度改革更加嚴苛時，降低非公務人員成為公務人員的機率，且提高公部門員工退出公部門的機率。最後，地方選舉後，新任地方首長所屬之政黨與原任首長不同時 (發生政黨輪替)，提高支持者進入公部門成為約聘僱人員的機率。

Based on manpower utilization survey data set from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistic, Executive Yuan, this paper analyzes the impact of public employee pension reform on labor market in Taiwan in 1995 and 2011, including wage, working hours and labor participation, and discusses the relationship between political factor of local election and labor participation. The results suggest that public employee pension reform which reduces pension leads to an increase of wage in 2011 pension reform next year, in accordance with the substitution relationship between wage and pension as suggested by the theory. In addition, the results from difference-in-differences analyses suggest that the immediate effect of cutting retired pension depends on the magnitude of the pension reform, and the reforms lead to an increase in their working hours after three years.

In addition, this paper uses instrumental variable Probit model to explore the effects of pension reforms on labor participation. The results suggest that cutting public employee pension leads to decreases in the probabilities of becoming public employees, and increases in the probabilities of withdrawal from public sector. Finally, the probabilities of becoming contract employees increase when the local election results in a “switch” in the political party.

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