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研究生: 張云瀞
論文名稱: 最低保證提領附約之評價與避險成本分析
指導教授: 張士傑
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系
Department of Risk Management and Insurance
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 48
中文關鍵詞: 最低保證蒙地卡羅
相關次數: 點閱:127下載:117
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  • 最低保證提領附約(Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit;GMWB)為變額年金保險之創新型態附約,附有最低保證提領附約之契約,以期初投資總額計算最低保證提領金額,提供被保險人規避連結投資標的物而產生之資產跌價損失風險,給予被保險人於保險契約到期前提領最低保證金額。
      本研究依據Milevsky and Salisbury (2006)保證提領附約計價模型及基本假設架構,將附約分解為確定年金與亞式匯率選擇權契約,利用蒙地卡羅方法,計算隱含之避險成本,以2007年台灣定存利率實證分析及對照,探究保險人合理避險成本,藉由保證提領率、無險利率、連結標的物波動度三種參數進行敏感度分析,歸納參數對避險成本之影響,提供保險機構於發行最低保證提領附約時,避險成本之參考依據。
      由數值計算結果歸納發現,最低保證提領附約之避險成本與保證提領率、無險利率與標的物波動度三項參數有關,摘要如下:
    1. 無險利率與避險成本呈反向關係,給定銀行利率2.34%,每期保證提領率7%,連結標的波動度20%時,保險人之避險成本為270基準點。
    2. 標的物波動度與避險成本呈正向關係,於給定本研究條件下,連結標的物波動度為30%時,保險人之避險成本顯著增加為600基準點。
    3. 保證提領率與避險成本呈正向關係,於給定本研究條件下,模擬數值結果顯示,保證提領率每增加0.5%,保險人避險成本將再增加20基準點。



    第一章 緒論
    1.1 研究背景
    1.2 研究動機與目標
    1.3 研究範圍與步驟
    1.3.1 研究範圍
    1.3.2 研究步驟
    1.4 研究架構
    第二章 相關文獻及理論探討
    2.1 附有最低保證之保險商品評價
    2.1.1 評價模型
    2.1.2 隨機利率模型
    2.1.3 新奇選擇權之置換
    第三章 最低保證提領附加條款
    3.1 最低保證條款
    3.1.1 數值例子
    3.2 模型建立
    3.2.1 基本假設及參數設定
    3.2.2 最低保證提領之帳戶價值模式定義
    3.3 求解最低保證提領附約費用率
    3.3.1 蒙地卡羅模擬
    3.4 實證模擬結果
    3.4.1 結果分析與討論
    第四章 結論與後續研究
    4.1 結論
    4.2 後續研究之建議
    參考文獻
    附錄


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