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| 研究生： |
鄭宇軒 Zheng, Yu Xuan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
美國關稅與去全球化下跨國銀行的應對策略 Strategic Responses of International Banks to U.S. Tariffs and De-globalization |
| 指導教授： | 蔡政憲 |
| 口試委員: |
周志遠
黃孝慈 |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA) |
| 論文出版年： | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度： | 114 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 65 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 美國關稅 、去全球化 、地緣政治風險 、跨境銀行業務 、地緣經濟碎片化 、信用配置 、國際銀行 、全球系統重要性銀行 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | U.S. tariffs, De-globalization, Geopolitical risk, Cross-border banking, Geoeconomic fragmentation, Credit allocation, International banks, G-SIBs |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：4 下載：0 |
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本研究探討美國關稅政策與去全球化如何重塑國際銀行的策略行為。本研究利用國際清算銀行（BIS）的國際銀行統計數據，並對五家全球系統重要性銀行（G-SIBs）——匯豐銀行（HSBC）、花旗集團（Citigroup）、美國銀行（Bank of America）、法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）及中國工商銀行（ICBC）——的年報進行比較分析，藉此調查地緣政治碎片化如何影響跨境信貸配置、貸款期限結構、合規架構以及機構轉型。
地緣政治緊張局勢主要透過兩個渠道傳導至銀行體系：其一是包含制裁與資本管制在內的直接金融限制；其二是加劇市場不確定性並提高風險趨避傾向。信貸緊縮對小型企業的衝擊往往最為嚴重，而大型跨國企業則能透過內部資本市場部分抵消資金緊縮的影響。此外，金融資源正加速從地緣政治風險較高的產業流出，並重新配置到人工智慧（AI）基礎設施與半導體產業。
比較分析顯示，各銀行在策略上出現了顯著的地緣政治分歧。西方銀行強調風險緩釋、制裁合規以及選擇性撤資；與此同時，中國工商銀行則透過人民幣國際化與「一帶一路」融資積極進行擴張。這表明全球銀行體系可能正朝向「雙軌架構」演變，並各自依循不同的地緣政治邏輯運作。
在日益碎片化的全球環境下，本研究的發現為國際銀行、金融監管機構以及企業融資策略提供了重要的啟示與政策建議。
This study examines how U.S. tariff policies and de-globalization are reshaping the strategic behavior of international banks. Drawing on BIS international banking statistics and a comparative analysis of annual reports from five G-SIBs — HSBC, Citigroup, Bank of America, BNP Paribas, and ICBC — the study investigates how geopolitical fragmentation affects cross-border credit allocation, lending maturity structures, compliance frameworks, and institutional restructuring. Geopolitical tensions transmit through the banking system via two channels: direct financial restrictions including sanctions and capital controls, and heightened uncertainty that increases risk aversion. Credit contractions disproportionately affect smaller firms, while large multinationals partially offset tightening through internal capital markets. Financial resources are increasingly redirected toward AI infrastructure and semiconductors, and away from geopolitically exposed industries.
The comparative analysis reveals a significant strategic divergence along geopolitical lines. Western banks emphasize risk mitigation, sanctions compliance, and selective retrenchment, while ICBC pursues expansion through RMB internationalization and Belt and Road financing — suggesting the global banking system may be evolving toward a dual-track architecture operating along distinct geopolitical logics.
The study offers implications for international banks, financial regulators, and corporate financing strategies in an increasingly fragmented global environment.
1. Introduction緒論 1
1.1. The Rise of Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Global Economy全球經濟中地緣經濟分裂的興起 1
1.2. Research Motivation: The Reshaping of Financial Intermediaries under Geoeconomic Fragmentation研究動機: 地緣經濟分裂下金融中介角色的重塑 4
1.3. International Banks as Financial Intermediaries in the Transmission of Geopolitical Shocks國際型銀行作為地緣政治衝擊傳導中的重要金融中介 5
2. A Thorough Investigation of Geoeconomic Fragmentation Risks地緣經濟分裂之風險詳述 8
2.1. Changes in Risk Structure風險結構改變 9
2.1.1. Geographic Risk (China vs. ASEAN vs. the United States) 地區風險（中國 vs ASEAN vs 美國） 9
2.1.2. Sectoral Risk (Manufacturing and Semiconductors) 產業風險（製造業、半導體） 11
3. Responses of International Banks to Geoeconomic Fragmentation Risks國際銀行對地緣經濟分裂風險之因應 15
3.1. Credit and Capital Allocation授信與資本配置 15
3.1.1. Which sectors experience credit contraction, and which benefit from increased allocation? 哪些產業被降額？哪些被拉高？ 15
3.2. Maturity Structure Adjustment in Lending銀行放款期限結構之調整 18
3.3. Cross-border Financial Flows跨境金融流動 20
3.4. Banks’ Institutional Restructuring: Governance, Risk, and Compliance 制度重組：治理、風險與法遵 21
3.4.1. Reconfiguration of International Branch and Subsidiary Networks分行與子公司布局調整 22
3.4.2. Modification of Risk Management Frameworks and Models風控模型與風險評估架構修正 22
3.4.3. Strengthening of Compliance and Sanctions-Related Controls法遵體系與制裁風險管理強化 23
4. Comparative Evidence from Major International Banks主要跨國銀行之比較分析 25
5. Conclusion and Recommendations結論 34
5.1. Implications for International Banks對國際銀行的啟示 35
5.2. Implications for Financial Regulators對金融監管機構的啟示 38
5.3. Implications for Corporate Financing對企業融資的啟示 40
6. Reference 43
7. Appendix 48
Appendix 1: Tariff關稅政策 48
7.1 USITC tariff list USITC關稅清單 48
7.2 Academic papers on tariff effects關稅影響之學術研究 49
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