2022 年 2 月俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動全面入侵，歐洲安全秩序進入深刻的重組階段。在此背景下，法國作為歐盟境內唯一擁有核武且具備相對完整國防工業鏈的成員國，其在歐盟安全決策中所扮演的角色備受關注。然而，法國同時面臨公共債務突破 GDP 110%、預算赤字遠超歐盟規定門檻的嚴峻財政困境，形成戰略野心與財政限制並存的顯著矛盾。
本研究以「選擇性成功」（Selective Success）作為核心分析框架，探討法國如何在資源受限的條件下，透過制度性槓桿在特定領域實現影響力的最大化，並界定其戰略領導力的現實邊界。研究採取質性研究途徑，結合歷史制度主義的分析視角，透過文獻分析法與案例研究法，系統性地檢視 2022 至2024 年間法國在歐盟安全決策中的具體操作。
研究發現法國的「選擇性成功」在制度層面取得了可觀的成果。法國利用 2022 年擔任歐盟理事會輪值主席國的機會，透過《凡爾賽宣言》完成政治議程的定錨；並透過主導《歐洲國防工業計畫》（European Defence Industry Programme, EDIP）、《透過共同採購強化歐洲國防產業法》（European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act, EDIRPA）等法規的設計，成功將歐洲優先之採購原則制度化，實現防務工業成本的「資源社會化」。然而，當議題上升至終極安全保障的層次時，法國面臨兩項結構性限制：其一，中東歐成員國基於歷史記憶與威脅認知差異所形成的大西洋主義傾向；其二，法國核武教條的憲政排他性，使其客觀上無法建立等同於北約核共享機制的延伸嚇阻安排。
本研究認為，烏俄戰爭真正催生的制度性遺產，是一種「混合型安全架構」的逐步成形：歐洲國家在防務工業與採購等低階政治層次正逐漸走向歐盟化，但在核威懾與集體防衛等高階政治層次，依然維持以北約與美國為核心的大西洋主義框架。法國未來最具可行性的戰略定位，將不再是試圖取代北約的「戰略自主倡議者」，而是在北約框架內推動歐洲防務工業整合的「總工程師」。

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a profound restructuring of European security order. Against this backdrop, France—as the only EU member state possessing nuclear weapons and a relatively comprehensive defense industrial base—has attracted considerable attention for its role in EU security decision-making. At the same time, France faces severe fiscal constraints, with public debt exceeding 110% of GDP and budget deficits far surpassing EU-mandated thresholds, creating a pronounced contradiction between strategic ambition and material limitation.
This thesis employs "Selective Success" as its core analytical framework to examine how France has leveraged institutional mechanisms to maximize its influence in specific domains despite resource constraints, while identifying the realistic boundaries of its strategic leadership. Adopting a qualitative research approach informed by historical institutionalism, the study systematically analyzes France's conduct in EU security decision-making between 2022 and 2024 through document analysis and case studies.
The research finds that France's "Selective Success" has yielded tangible institutional achievements. By exploiting its rotating EU Council presidency in 2022, France anchored the political agenda through the Versailles Declaration and successfully institutionalized the "European preference" procurement principle through instruments such as the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA), effectively socializing defense industrial costs across the EU framework. However, when issues escalate to the level of ultimate security guarantees, France encounters two structural constraints: first, the Atlanticist orientation of Eastern European member states, rooted in historical memory and divergent threat perceptions; second, the constitutional exclusivity of France's nuclear doctrine, which objectively precludes the establishment of extended deterrence arrangements equivalent to NATO's nuclear sharing mechanism.
This thesis argues that the genuine institutional legacy of the Russia-Ukraine War is the gradual emergence of a "Hybrid Security Architecture": European states are increasingly moving toward EU-level integration in the "low politics" domain of defense industry and procurement, while continuing to maintain the NATO-US Atlanticist framework in the "high politics" domain of nuclear deterrence and collective defense. France's most viable strategic positioning going forward will not be as an advocate seeking to replace NATO, but as the "chief architect" of European defense industrial integration within the NATO framework.

一、中文文獻（依姓氏筆畫順序）
（一）政府出版品與官方報告
法國總統府，「2022 年國家戰略評估報告」，巴黎：法國總統府，2022年。
（二）期刊論文
卓忠宏，「歐盟對中國政策的轉變：從避險走向柔性平衡（2013-2023）」，《歐美研究》，第五十四卷第三期（2024 年），頁475-523。
蘇卓馨，「歐中體制競爭下的合作：歐盟『戰略自主』的視角」，《人文及社會科學集刊》，第三十四卷第四期（2022 年），頁 817-840。
（三）學位論文
洪聖彥，「英國脫歐後的歐盟共同防務——英、德、法之新戰略動態」，國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文，2022 年。
葉泓，「梅克爾政府時期德國國防政策研究」，國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班碩士論文，2025 年。
二、英文文獻
（一）專書
Gilpin, Robert. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981.
Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House, 1987.
Moravcsik, Andrew. The Choice for Europe: Social Purpose and State Power from Messina to Maastricht. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998.
Posen, Barry R. Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014.
Rosato, Sebastian. Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2011.
Tertrais, Bruno. French Nuclear Deterrence Policy, Forces, and Future: A Handbook. Recherches & Documents, No. 4/2020. Paris: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, February 2020.
Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.
Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979.
（二）期刊論文
Aggestam, Lisbeth, and Adrian Hyde-Price. "Double Trouble: Trump, Transatlantic Relations and European Strategic Autonomy." Journal of Common Market Studies 58, no. 1 (2020): 114–127.
Fiott, Daniel. "The European Defence Fund: Calculating the Dividends of Defense Integration." European Foreign Affairs Review 29, no. 1 (2024): 25–42.
Fiott, Daniel. "From Liberalisation to Industrial Policy: Towards a Geoeconomic Turn in the European Defence Market?" JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies 62, no. 4 (2024): 1012-1027.
Haroche, Pierre. "European Defence Fund: A Game Changer for European Defence?" European View 17, no. 1 (2018): 87–88.
Haroche, Pierre. "Supranationalism Strikes Back: The Commission's Influence in EU Defense Policy." Journal of European Public Policy 27, no. 6 (2022): 853–872.
Heisbourg, François. "War and Peace in Europe: The Return of the Real." Survival 64, no. 1 (2022): 203–210.
Posen, Barry R. "European Union Security and Defense Policy: Response to Unipolarity?" Security Studies 15, no. 2 (2006): 149–186.
（三）研究報告與政策簡報
Arnold, Sven, and Torben Schütz. "The European Sky Shield Initiative: A German Project with Strategic Implications for Europe." Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), SWP Comment 2023/C 12, February 2023.
Béraud-Sudreau, Lucie, et al. "The Surge in European Arms Imports and South Korea's Growing Role." Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 2023.
Besch, Sophia. "EU Defense Cooperation: The Capability-Expectation Gap 2.0." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.
Biscop, Sven. "Fighting for Europe: From Power Projection to Territorial Defense." Egmont Institute Policy Brief 119 (2019).
Csernatoni, Raluca. "The EU's Defense Technological and Industrial Base: A New Engine for Strategic Autonomy?" Carnegie Europe, 2022.
Fiott, Daniel. "More Money, More Dependence? Financing European Union Defence for Autonomy and Cooperation." FEPS Policy Brief. Brussels: Foundation for European Progressive Studies, November, 2025.
Giegerich, Bastian. "The 2% Mirage: European Defence Spending in an Era of Inflation." IISS Survival Essays (2022).
Gotkowska, Justyna. "Poland's Military Modernisation: The US and South Korea in the Spotlight." Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Commentary No. 471, 2022.
Kundnani, Hans. "Germany's Identity Crisis." Foreign Affairs, March 2, 2022. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/germany/2022-03-02/germanys-identity-crisis.
Murgia, Nicolò, and Alessandro Marrone. "The European Defence Industry Programme: The Last Piece of the EU Defence Puzzle?" IAI Briefs 26|02. Rome: Istituto Affari Internazionali, February 2026.
Nováky, Niklas. "The EU's New Defence Instruments: EDIRPA and EDIP Explained." Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies Policy Brief, 2023.
Tertrais, Bruno. "The European Dimension of Nuclear Deterrence: French and British Policies and Future Scenarios." FIIA Working Paper 106. Helsinki: Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 2018.
（四）官方文件與法規
Council of the European Union. "European Defence Industry Programme: Council Gives Final Approval." Press Release, December 8, 2025. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/12/08/european-defence-industry-programme-council-gives-final-approval/.
Council of the European Union. "Versailles Declaration." March 10– 11, 2022. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/54773/20220311-versailles-declaration-en.pdf.
European Commission. "Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Establishing the European Defence Industry Programme and a Framework of Measures to Ensure the Timely Availability and Supply of Defence Products ('EDIP')." COM(2024) 150 final, March 5, 2024.
European Parliament and Council. "Regulation (EU) 2021/697 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2021Establishing the European Defence Fund." Official Journal of the European Union, L 170/149, May 12, 2021.
European Parliament and Council. "Regulation (EU) 2023/1525 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 July 2023 on Supporting Ammunition Production (ASAP)." Official Journal of the European Union, L 185/7, July 24, 2023.
European Parliament and Council. "Regulation (EU) 2023/2418 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 October 2023 on Establishing an Instrument for the Reinforcement of the European Defence Industry through Common Procurement (EDIRPA)." Official Journal of the European Union, October 26, 2023.
European Union External Action Service (EEAS). A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence. March 2022.
Franco-British Summit, "Joint Declaration on European Defence," Saint-Malo, December 4, 1998. Available at: https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/2008/3/31/f3cd16fb-fc37-4d52-936f-c8e9bc80f24f/publishable\_en.pdf.
NATO. "Nuclear Planning Group (NPG)." NATO Topic Page. https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/organization/nato-structure/nuclear-planning-group-npg.
Présidence de la République. National Strategic Review 2025. Paris, 2025.
U.S. Department of State. "NATO's Collective Burden Sharing." Washington Foreign Press Center Briefing, June 26, 2024. https://2021-2025.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/fpc-nato-series/nato-collective-burden-sharing.
（五）演講與官方聲明
Borrell, Josep. "Europe Must Learn to Speak the Language of Power." Hearing at the European Parliament, October 7, 2019.
Macron, Emmanuel. "Initiative pour l'Europe – Discours d'Emmanuel Macron pour une Europe souveraine, unie, démocratique." Élysée, September 26, 2017. https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2017/09/26/initiative-pour-l-europe-discours-d-emmanuel-macron-pour-une-europe-souveraine-unie-democratique.
Macron, Emmanuel. "Speech of the President of the Republic on the Defense and Deterrence Strategy." École de Guerre, Paris, February 7, 2020. Élysée. https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2020/02/07/speech-of-the-president-of-the-republic-on-the-defense-and-deterrence-strategy.
Macron, Emmanuel. "Speech by the President of the Republic at the GLOBSEC Summit in Bratislava." Élysée, May 31, 2023.
Macron, Emmanuel. "Speech by the President of the Republic on Air and Missile Defence in Europe." Élysée, June 19, 2023.
Macron, Emmanuel. "Speech on Europe at the Sorbonne." Speech delivered at Sorbonne University, Paris, April 25, 2024. Élysée Palace.
Scholz, Olaf. "Policy Statement by Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany and Member of the German Bundestag,27 February 2022 in Berlin." The Federal Government, February 27, 2022.
Scholz, Olaf. "Speech by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Charles University in Prague." The Federal Government, August 29, 2022.
（六）媒體報導
French Government Avoids Collapse After Surviving Two No-Confidence Votes. Euronews, January 23, 2026.https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/23/french-government-avoids-collapse-after-surviving-two-no-confidence-votes.
French Government Collapses After Prime Minister Loses Confidence Vote. CNN, September 8, 2025.https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/08/europe/french-prime-minister-confidence-vote-latam-intl.
"Germany Decides to Buy F-35, in Major Reversal of Announced Plans. Breaking Defense, March 14, 2022. https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/germany-decides-to-buy-f-35-in-major-reversal-of-announced-plans/.
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"Macron Draws New Wave of Criticism over Call Not to 'Humiliate' Russia. France 24, June 6, 2022. https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220606-macron-draws-new-wave-of-criticism-over-call-not-to-humiliate-russia.
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Macron, Emmanuel. "Emmanuel Macron Warns Europe: NATO Is Becoming Brain-Dead." The Economist, November 7, 2019.
Macron, Emmanuel. Interview with French regional newspapers, June 4, 2022. Cited in "'Ne pas humilier la Russie': l'appel d'Emmanuel Macron fait des vagues." Euractiv FR, June 7, 2022. https://www.euractiv.fr/section/international/news/ne-pas-humilier-la-russie-lappel-demmanuel-macron-fait-des-vagues/.
Putin Says Ready for Compromise with West after Talks with Macron on Ukraine. France 24, February 8, 2022. https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220208-putin-says-ready-for-compromise-with-west-after-talks-with-macron-on-ukraine.
What Comes Next for France After Another Government Collapse. TIME, September 2025.
三、法文部分
France. Code de la défense, Articles R*1411-6 et R*1411-8. Légifrance. https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/section\_lcLEGITEXT000006071307/LEGISCTA000006151857/.
Journal Officiel de la République Française. Loi n° 2023-703 du 1er août 2023 relative à la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030 et portant diverses dispositions intéressant la défense. 2023.
Larsonneur, J.-C., et J.-L. Thiériot. L'industrie de défense, pourvoyeuse d'autonomie stratégique en Europe ? Rapport d'information n° 2625. Paris: Assemblée nationale, 2024.
Macron, Emmanuel. “Discours du Président de la République sur la stratégie de défense et de dissuasion devant les stagiaires de l'École de Guerre.“ École militaire, Paris, 7 février 2020. Élysée. https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2020/02/07/speech-of-the-president-of-the-republic-on-the-defense-and-deterrence-strategy.
Masson, H. Réarmement européen : une industrie de défense sur une ligne de crête. Recherches & Documents n° 02/2025. Paris: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), 2025.
Plassard, C. Rapport d'information déposé par la commission des finances sur l'économie de guerre. Rapport n° 1023. Paris: Assemblée nationale, 2023.
Secrétariat général de la défense et de la sécurité nationale (SGDSN). Revue nationale stratégique 2022 : Défendre nos intérêts, partager nos responsabilités. Paris: La Documentation française, 2022.